Real Estate Advisor asked:


Modest median price gains in new and existing homes, a stable interest rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage, decreased housing starts and a stable unemployment rate are some of the features of the 2007 housing forecast provided by major trade group economists as reported by The Inman News.

NAR chief economist David Lereah expects new-home sales to fall from 1.07 million units sold in 2006 to 975,000 units in 2007, which is an 8.7% decline. He cites decreased new home construction as a large contributing factor to this change. The median new home price of $238,400 in 2006 is expected to increase by 1.3 percent to $241,400 in 2007.

NAR also predicts that existing home sales figures for 2006 to end around 6.47 million units, which is an 8.6% decline from 2005. The 2007 forecast for existing home sales is 6.43 million units. The median price of existing homes in 2006 was $223,700 and is expected to increase 1.7% to $227,500 in 2007.

Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts the interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages to stay around 6.5 percent, but mortgage originations to fall 14% to $2.1 trillion.

While Lereah predicts that the unemployment rate to stay at 4.7 percent, Duncan takes it higher and believes it may reach 5.2 percent by midyear 2007. However, he concurs with Lereah in predicting modest home price gains in new and existing homes for the coming year.

The housing forecast of The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is in line with NAR and the Mortgage Bankers Association. According to David Seiders, Chief Economist at NAHB, the year 2007 will see the housing market re-adjust itself once the housing demand stabilizes, leading to a healthy balance between supply and demand.

Looking at the state level, the California Association of Realtors (CAR) projects that the median price of California homes will end 2006 around $560,700, and will decline in 2007 to $550,000 — a 1.7% drop. The number of units sold in California will end 2006 around 481,200, and is projected to decrease 447,500 in 2007. CAR predicts that the unemployment rate will stay around 5.1 percent, although interest rates on the 30-year fixed mortgage may hover around 6.7 percent in 2007.

The overall housing forecast for 2007 made by these four major real estate trade groups is not at all bad. Home buyers and investors planning to go ahead with their real estate activities can fare better with the help of a good real estate agent.



Dana

Real Estate Advisor asked:


The price of housing is a major challenge in the United States. Some estimates note that more than 50% of the population cannot afford a median priced home. According to National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), of the total number of new and existing homes sold nationwide during the third quarter, only 40.4 percent were affordable for families earning the median U.S. income of $59,600.

But it is good news that housing affordability on the national level has not changed much in the third quarter in spite of a rise in the mortgage interest rates during the last quarter. This was because many markets saw a slight decrease in their home prices, which helped offset the rise in mortgage rates.

Indianapolis (Indiana) is the most affordable city for homes in America, based on the 2006 third quarter report of the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI). The city achieved this status for the fifth consecutive quarter.

Of the total number of housing units sold in Indianapolis during the third quarter, 86 percent of homes were priced at or below the U.S. median household income of $65,100. Homes in this metro area had a median sales price of $122,000, which is slightly higher from $120,000 of the previous quarter.

It is interesting to note that the most affordable U.S. cities for homes, condos and other real estate are largely from the northern industrial metro areas. The other larger cities that top the list for affordable homes in the third quarter after Indianapolis are Youngstown-Warren-Boardman (Ohio-Pennsylvania); Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn (Michigan); Buffalo-Niagara Falls (New York); and Grand Rapids and Wyoming (Michigan).

The report also lists the top seven smaller cities in America that have the most affordable housing markets. These are: Bay City in Michigan, Springfield in Ohio, Mansfield in Ohio, Lansing-East Lansing in Michigan, Lima in Ohio, Battle Creek in Michigan and Canton-Massillon in Ohio.

For both major metros and small metros, many of the least affordable cities are located in California. The least affordable major metro areas are Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Modesto, Stockton, and San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, in that order. The least affordable smaller metros (less than 500,000 people) include: Salinas, Merced, Madera, Napa, and Santa Barbara-Santa Maria.

The good news for homebuyers is that there are many affordable cities in the United States. Moreover, even for cities that rated poorly for affordability, there may be some communities within the larger city that have affordable housing. For example, although the San Diego metro in California rated poorly overall for affordability, there are some communities in San Diego priced to meet the needs of lower-income home buyers. A good real estate agent can help you choose a community where you want to live based on your housing budget and needs.



Derek