Real Estate Advisor asked:


Buying a home is a big-time real estate investment and has to be done with great prudence. Knowing where not to buy a home is as important as are the dos and don’ts of buying a home.

Of the many top ten lists on CNNMoney.com, there is listed the top ten overvalued cities in America where it is better not to buy a home for the next two years or so. The report states a variety of reasons for the unfavorable market conditions.

Five cities in California – Bakersfield, Fresno, Merced, Sacramento and Stockton, figure among the top ten cities that have the least possibility of home price appreciation. Home prices have reached a new high (by nearly 60%) in these areas over the past two years. With an economy driven by agriculture and relatively higher unemployment rates anticipated for that area, the real estate market is predicted to slump in the region.

Although three cities in Florida are recommended as good real estate buys, the report also cites four others in Southwest Florida that fall among the very bottom of the list. With home prices here expected to plummet very soon, cities like Fort Myers, Naples, Punta Gorda and Sarasota are those that one would do best to avoid for a year’s time or so, while buying a home or a condo.

Market prices are expected to decline in the Jersey Shore (New Jersey) area that saw a radical boom in the last two quarters. Although home prices in the third quarter have rebounded from the slight drop during the second quarter, the bubble is expected to burst soon and the overpriced market is likely to stabilize. The popular seaside cities of New Jersey, Atlantic City and Ocean city are anticipated to fall under the unfavorable list.

In Phoenix, Arizona, a hot favorite among investors last year, sliding home prices may to be an unavoidable occurrence in the next 12 months. With home prices dropping by more than $100,000 in some residential developments and investors trying to sell off their property, it is safer to wait for a year or longer before investing here.

Economists at Moody’s Economy.com also predict a sharp decline in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, California’s Inland Empire.

The bottom ten cities that are likely to see major drops in median home prices during the coming year are Stockton, (leading the list with a predicted fall of 9.7%), Merced, Reno/Sparks, Fresno, Vallejo/Fairfield, Las Vegas, Bakersfield, Sacramento, Washington, D.C and Tucson.

Given these fluctuating real estate market conditions, one should exercise a great deal of caution when investing in real estate. It makes sense to get the expert advice of a real estate agent to advise you about your next home purchase, since agents often have access to the most up-to-date real estate market data and neighborhood pricing trends.



Jack

Real Estate Advisor asked:


Buying home, condo or any other real estate in a market that is protected from a bursting bubble is every investor’s dream. Knowing where to look for these bubble-proof markets and how to identify them is crucial.

There are some important factors that investors should consider when searching for stable investments such as single-family homes, condos or any other type of real estate. Some of these factors include a fast growing population (which positively impacts the demand for housing), a solid and diverse economy (which impacts employment rates and subsequent demand for housing), rising incomes (which impacts buyers’ ability to purchase real estate), a developing infrastructure (which contributes to the appeal of a city or community), and restrictions on future real estate development (which limits future supply of real estate). Investing in real estate within communities that meet these criteria may prove to be more profitable than communities that are missing one or more of these factors.

A recent report by Business 2.0 Magazine identified U.S. cities that have consistently demonstrated price appreciation in the real estate market. The October 2006 issue of the Magazine identified the top 5 real estate markets that demonstrated an upward price trend over a long period time. The top-ranking cities were:

1. San Francisco, California

2. Los Angeles, California

3. Seattle, Washington

4. Boston, Massachusetts

5. New York City, New York

San Francisco topped the list with an average annual home price appreciation of 4.2% from 1949 to 2006. In contrast, the national average was 2.3%. Strong restrictions on real estate development and a limited geography helped push San Francisco to the top slot.

Los Angeles ranked second in the report. The average annual home price appreciation in Los Angeles was 3.7% from 1949 to 2006. Reductions in available land and increasing restrictions on further development helped pushed Los Angeles to the number 2 slot.

Home prices in Seattle, which was third on the list, demonstrated an average appreciation rate of 3.2% from 1949 to 2006. While Seattle made the top 5 list, recent easing of building restrictions may cause Seattle to fall out of the top 5 over the next few years.

Boston was fourth in the rankings. The city has seen annual home prices appreciate by 3% over the period from 1949 to 2006. A strong increase in per capita income contributed to Boston’s high ranking.

New York City follows close behind with an average annual home price appreciation of 3% from 1949 to 2006. A limited geography, large population, and finite number of properties contributed to New York’s high ranking.

While there is no guarantee that any of the real estate markets listed previously are truly “bubble proof,” the factors described above may help investors find the profitable markets and avoid “bubble” markets. Since the real estate market is constantly changing, be sure to seek out the services of a skillful real estate agent to help you navigate your next real estate purchase.



Shannon